The valuable lesson Guardians learned last year and how it should help at trade deadline (2024)

Stop calling this a hot start. It’s not. By the end of the weekend, 40 percent of the season will be complete. We’re well beyond this being a mirage. The Cleveland Guardians are contenders. Full stop.

Since the wild-card era began, 24 teams prior to this season won at least 40 of their first 60 games, according to Stathead. Twenty-two of them reached the playoffs. Ten went to the World Series and seven of them won it. The most recent example was last year when the Texas Rangers turned a 40-20 start into a championship.

Based on the last 30 years of data, 92 percent of teams in Cleveland’s position reached the postseason.

The fascinating part of all of this is how the Guardians got here. I had quite a few conversations over the offseason and during spring training with various team officials about a payroll hovering around $100 million. There was the whole television contract fiasco with Diamond Sports that was out of their control, but it felt like there should have been more room in the budget than what was spent.

I wanted to write about the payroll in a thoughtful way — not necessarily hammer them, but not give them a pass for not spending, either. Ultimately, I held off on writing anything. I wanted to give them a chance and see what this season looked like. The Guardians’ most miserable season is typically the offseason when they get crushed all winter for not spending. Then a new season begins and they’re often hovering near the top of the standings again while the payroll talk dissipates until next winter.

When last season ended, Guardians executives felt they’d missed badly on players like Nolan Jones and Will Benson. This isn’t an organization that can spend multiple years developing hitters, only to watch them flourish elsewhere after moving on too quickly. The Guardians have to be right on their own players. Every time. The 40-man roster crunch of the last few years and the inability to swing a big trade have expedited decisions on some players that otherwise would be stretched over more years.

It’s important to note both Benson and particularly Jones have been unable to duplicate their breakout seasons from last year. Benson’s OPS is 120 points lower than where he finished last season, and Jones has been both injured and unproductive when in the lineup. Nevertheless, one of the great lessons from last season was to make sure the Guardians get it right on their own guys.

After the surprise breakout season of 2022, they chose to get aggressive and dipped back into free agency to upgrade the offense. The signings of Mike Zunino and Josh Bell were disasters. Even though he’s long gone, Bell’s contract remains a contributing reason why 20 percent of this year’s payroll isn’t even on the roster. Add in Shane Bieber’s contract and one-third of the Guardians’ thin payroll is being spent on guys who aren’t here — and this team is still on pace to win 108 games.

Although they may not play the same position, one official told me during spring training the signing of Bell was part of the reason they “missed” on Jones. I don’t know that I agree completely, but I understood the sentiment. There are only so many spots on the 40-man and active rosters.

So this offseason was a focused effort to avoid free agency and return to the kids. It wasn’t a great class of hitters anyway, which is partly why they went to two years with Bell. They were trying to get in front of a bear market. Instead, they got eaten by the bear.

The valuable lesson remained: Don’t move on from guys too quickly, only to watch Gabriel Arias or Will Brennan flourish elsewhere. Much like two years ago, it has worked better than anyone could’ve realistically expected.

David Fry is one of the best stories in baseball. Tyler Freeman appears to be settling in as an outfielder. Kyle Manzardo looks comfortable now at the plate. The Guardians spent this week in the top 10 in home runs and flirting with the top 10 in team OPS.

But there are still concerns, particularly with the starting rotation and at shortstop. Neither Arias nor Brayan Rocchio has separated himself at the position, which is where this gets complicated.

This team is worth investing in at the trade deadline. There are years, like last year, when moving prospects for rentals feels like throwing good money at a losing hand. This feels different. The division is theirs to win, and while the Yankees have been terrific, there is a path out of the American League and into the World Series.

Which is how all of this goes back to payroll. Money should not be the obstacle that prevents the Guardians from a big swing at the trade deadline.

The league supplements a large portion of Cleveland’s payroll. I never could nail down an exact percentage or figure because teams and the league office protect their books like they’re nuclear codes.

There are multiple revenue streams from the commissioner’s office that the Guardians qualify to receive. The first is the general revenue sharing that is covered by Article 24 of the collective bargaining agreement. It is intentionally written to confuse Harvard law graduates, so you and I have no chance at following which shell the cash is under. But we know it’s there.

The second is every team’s share of central revenues. That is divided among all 30 teams.

The third, and this year the most impactful, is the Guardians’ share of the collective bargaining tax, which is based on last year’s record-setting $210 million paid out by the league’s eight tax-paying teams. Of that $210 million, about half goes to player benefits and retirement accounts. The other half is put into a supplemental commissioner’s discretionary fund and dispersed among revenue-sharing teams at the commissioner’s discretion. So again, it’s impossible to know how much the teams get. But Cleveland is one of the markets that qualifies.

A fourth revenue stream, and the smallest, is the commissioner’s discretionary fund. A total of $10 million to $15 million is taken from the central fund and redistributed by the commissioner — you guessed it, at his discretion — to small-market teams. How much the Guardians get and how many teams are included remains buried under the Pentagon and guarded by British Beefeaters.

Regardless of the final numbers, the Guardians are getting a decent-sized check from the league and they still ultimately received most of their television revenue, too. None of that takes into account an attendance surge the last couple of years. Some of it is a gimmick, like the $50 monthly season pass, but something is better than nothing. It’s still consumers in seats eating hot dogs and drinking beers and purchasing hats and jerseys. So if a Bo Bichette or Kevin Gausman or Danny Jansen or Randy Arozarena or Tyler O’Neill or Jesus Luzardo becomes available at the trade deadline next month, salary should not be an impediment to swing big.

The Orioles are probably going shopping for another starter. Perhaps the Dodgers, too. Both have farm systems deeper and richer than the Guardians and will likely jump the line on any pitchers made available at the deadline. But money this time shouldn’t be an issue.

There is urgency to upgrade a team poised to win right now. Josh Naylor is under team control for only this year and next. Triston McKenzie is down to two years of control after this season. Steven Kwan will be arbitration-eligible beginning next year.

The clock spins fast in baseball and even faster in places like Cleveland, where the conversation of when to trade proven pieces nearing free agency is always looming. Pounce when the opportunity is real.

Their record and the last 30 years indicate this team is legitimate. Opportunity isn’t just knocking this summer, it’s beating on the hinges like Naylor holding a Marucci. Let it in.

(Top photo of Josh Naylor: Katelyn Mulcahy / Getty Images)

Jason Lloyd is a senior columnist for The Athletic, focusing on the Browns, Cavs and Guardians. Follow Jason on Twitter @ByJasonLloyd